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Tochigi SC vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
7/3/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 21Tochigi Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Tochigi SC32%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochigi SC
1.06
Machida Zelvia
1.21

Machida Zelvia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 127 away

creates per match

Tochigi SC
0.99
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Tochigi SC
1.11
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw
61%
Tochigi SC or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
68%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+
12%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals
65%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
29%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
9%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
70%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
34%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
45%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tochigi SC scores more
32%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
39%

Machida Zelvia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tochigi SC vs Machida Zelvia

Tochigi SC and Machida Zelvia drew 1-1 in J2 League on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Tochigi Green Stadium in Utsunomiya.