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Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi SC — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
10/24/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Machida Zelvia44%
×Draw29%
Tochigi SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.26
Tochigi SC
0.93

Machida Zelvia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 148 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Tochigi SC
0.76

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Tochigi SC
1.20

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Tochigi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
73%
Machida Zelvia or Tochigi SC
71%
Draw or Tochigi SC
56%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
20%
Tochigi SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
72%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
36%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
13%
Tochigi SC 1+ goals
61%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
24%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
62%
Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Tochigi SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tochigi SC attack 0.76 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
44%
level
29%
Tochigi SC scores more
27%

Machida Zelvia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 0–0 Tochigi SC

Machida Zelvia and Tochigi SC drew 0-0 in J2 League on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.