Tochigi SC 4–1 FC Gifu: Result & Stats | J2 League

Tochigi SC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FC Gifu

M. Oguro 63', 38'

K. Nishiya 56'

Paulao 32'

K. Nakashima 33'

8/4/2018

J2 League · Round 27Tochigi Green Stadium (Utsunomiya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tochigi SC56%

×Draw23%

FC Gifu21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tochigi SCExpected goals in this matchFC Gifu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.00

Tochigi SC

1.78

FC Gifu

1.00

Tochigi SC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.89

creates per match

1.11

0.89

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Tochigi SC

1.89

FC Gifu

1.11

allows per match

Tochigi SC

0.89

FC Gifu

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par

FC Gifu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

FC Gifu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw

79%

Tochigi SC or FC Gifu

77%

Draw or FC Gifu

44%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+

31%

FC Gifu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals

83%

Tochigi SC 2+ goals

53%

Tochigi SC 3+ goals

26%

FC Gifu 1+ goals

63%

FC Gifu 2+ goals

26%

FC Gifu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)

72%

FC Gifu (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

FC Gifu away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 1.89 + FC Gifu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC Gifu attack 1.11 + Tochigi SC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tochigi SC scores more

56%

level

23%

FC Gifu scores more

21%

Tochigi SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tochigi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Paulao

33'

K. Nakashima

38'

M. Oguro

56'

Y. Naganuma← S. Mishima

56'

K. Nishiya

63'

M. Oguro

65'

Michael← R. De Vries

66'

Y. Nishiya← K. Nishiya

70'

Y. Nishizawa← K. Okazaki

85'

Y. Kamigata← M. Oguro

86'

H. Namba← Y. Yamagishi

Tochigi

FC

25

16

34

2

15

14

31

30

⚽

Nakashima

9

▼

Yamagishi

6

▼

Mishima

10

▼

Vries

1

Takeshige

26

Tada

42

⚽

17

19

5

11

▼

Okazaki

14

⚽

▼

Nishiya

37

Hamashita

9

⚽2

▼

Oguro

29

Kawata

Manager: Y. Yokoyama

66'▲Y. Nishiya←▼K. Nishiya

70'▲Y. Nishizawa←▼K. Okazaki

85'▲Y. Kamigata←▼M. Oguro

Tochigi SC substitutes

41Nishiya2Nishizawa13Kamigata3Nishikawa16Sakaki25Pečnik33Ishikawa

Manager: T. Oki

56'▲Y. Naganuma←▼S. Mishima

65'▲Michael←▼R. De Vries

86'▲H. Namba←▼Y. Yamagishi

FC Gifu substitutes

26Naganuma33Michael24Namba3Takeda21Harada23Ono27Iyoha