Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tocantinópolis vs Trem — Serie D 2026

Tocantinópolis
Tocantinópolis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trem
Trem
Wanderson Gotinha 42'
4/19/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tocantinópolis50%
×Draw25%
Trem25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tocantinópolis
1.61
Trem
1.05

Tocantinópolis creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

creates per match

Tocantinópolis
1.39
Trem
1.17

allows per match

Tocantinópolis
0.93
Trem
1.83

finishing

Tocantinópolis+0.00on par
Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tocantinópolis ↓

Trem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tocantinópolis or draw
75%
Tocantinópolis or Trem
75%
Draw or Trem
50%

Winning margin

Tocantinópolis wins by 2+
26%
Trem wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tocantinópolis 1+ goals
80%
Tocantinópolis 2+ goals
48%
Tocantinópolis 3+ goals
22%
Trem 1+ goals
65%
Trem 2+ goals
28%
Trem 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tocantinópolis (draw refunded)
67%
Trem (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tocantinópolis at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tocantinópolis attack 1.39 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Trem attack 1.17 + Tocantinópolis defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tocantinópolis scores more
50%
level
25%
Trem scores more
25%

Tocantinópolis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tocantinópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
Wanderson Gotinha
Tocantinópolis
Trem
Reginaldo França
Manager: Reginaldo França
Sandro Macapá
Manager: Sandro Macapá

Serie D: Tocantinópolis 0–1 Trem

Trem beat Tocantinópolis 1-0 in Serie D on April 19, 2026.

Goals: Wanderson Gotinha (42').