Tocantinópolis 1–1 Maranhão: Result & Stats

Tocantinópolis

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Maranhão

Julio 42' (OG)

Ryan 53'

7/5/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio João Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tocantinópolis43%

×Draw29%

Maranhão28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TocantinópolisExpected goals in this matchMaranhão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.95

Tocantinópolis

1.23

Maranhão

0.95

Tocantinópolis creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

1.39

creates per match

0.97

0.93

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Tocantinópolis

1.39

Maranhão

0.97

allows per match

Tocantinópolis

0.93

Maranhão

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tocantinópolis+0.00on par

Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tocantinópolis ↓

Maranhão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tocantinópolis or draw

72%

Tocantinópolis or Maranhão

71%

Draw or Maranhão

57%

Winning margin

Tocantinópolis wins by 2+

19%

Maranhão wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tocantinópolis 1+ goals

71%

Tocantinópolis 2+ goals

35%

Tocantinópolis 3+ goals

13%

Maranhão 1+ goals

61%

Maranhão 2+ goals

25%

Maranhão 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tocantinópolis (draw refunded)

60%

Maranhão (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tocantinópolis at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Maranhão away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tocantinópolis attack 1.39 + Maranhão defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Maranhão attack 0.97 + Tocantinópolis defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tocantinópolis scores more

43%

level

29%

Maranhão scores more

28%

Tocantinópolis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tocantinópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

JulioOwn goal

53'

Ryan

Tocantinópolis

Maranhão

Manager: Reginaldo França

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro