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ToBK vs TuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

ToBK
ToBK
FT
0 – 3
TuPS
TuPS
4/7/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundPorvoon pallokentän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ToBK21%
×Draw19%
TuPS59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToBK
1.42
TuPS
2.44

TuPS creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

ToBK
1.83
TuPS
2.88

allows per match

ToBK
2.00
TuPS
1.00

finishing

ToBK+0.00on par
TuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToBK ↓

TuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

ToBK or draw
41%
ToBK or TuPS
81%
Draw or TuPS
79%

Winning margin

ToBK wins by 2+
9%
TuPS wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

ToBK 1+ goals
76%
ToBK 2+ goals
41%
ToBK 3+ goals
17%
TuPS 1+ goals
91%
TuPS 2+ goals
70%
TuPS 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

ToBK (draw refunded)
27%
TuPS (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToBK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

TuPS away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToBK attack 1.83 + TuPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

TuPS attack 2.88 + ToBK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ToBK scores more
21%
level
19%
TuPS scores more
59%

TuPS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "TuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ToBK vs TuPS

TuPS beat ToBK 3-0 in Suomen Cup on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Porvoon pallokentän tekonurmi in Porvoo.