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ToBK vs Ponnistajat — Suomen Cup 2018

ToBK
ToBK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ponnistajat
Ponnistajat
5/7/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundPorvoon pallokentän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ToBK16%
×Draw18%
Ponnistajat66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToBK
1.14
Ponnistajat
2.45

Ponnistajat creates 115% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

ToBK
1.83
Ponnistajat
2.89

allows per match

ToBK
2.00
Ponnistajat
0.44

finishing

ToBK+0.00on par
Ponnistajat+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToBK ↓

Ponnistajat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

ToBK or draw
34%
ToBK or Ponnistajat
82%
Draw or Ponnistajat
84%

Winning margin

ToBK wins by 2+
6%
Ponnistajat wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

ToBK 1+ goals
68%
ToBK 2+ goals
32%
ToBK 3+ goals
11%
Ponnistajat 1+ goals
91%
Ponnistajat 2+ goals
70%
Ponnistajat 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

ToBK (draw refunded)
20%
Ponnistajat (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToBK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Ponnistajat away — creates 2.89, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToBK attack 1.83 + Ponnistajat defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ponnistajat attack 2.89 + ToBK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

ToBK scores more
16%
level
18%
Ponnistajat scores more
66%

Ponnistajat at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ponnistajat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ToBK vs Ponnistajat

ToBK and Ponnistajat drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Porvoon pallokentän tekonurmi in Porvoo.