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ToBK vs Espoon Tikka — Suomen Cup 2018

ToBK
ToBK
FT
2 – 1
Espoon Tikka
Espoon Tikka
3/29/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundPorvoon pallokentän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ToBK14%
×Draw15%
Espoon Tikka71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToBK
1.42
Espoon Tikka
3.17

Espoon Tikka creates 123% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

ToBK
1.83
Espoon Tikka
4.33

allows per match

ToBK
2.00
Espoon Tikka
1.00

finishing

ToBK+0.00on par
Espoon Tikka+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToBK ↓

Espoon Tikka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

ToBK or draw
29%
ToBK or Espoon Tikka
85%
Draw or Espoon Tikka
86%

Winning margin

ToBK wins by 2+
6%
Espoon Tikka wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

ToBK 1+ goals
76%
ToBK 2+ goals
41%
ToBK 3+ goals
17%
Espoon Tikka 1+ goals
96%
Espoon Tikka 2+ goals
82%
Espoon Tikka 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

ToBK (draw refunded)
17%
Espoon Tikka (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToBK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Espoon Tikka away — creates 4.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToBK attack 1.83 + Espoon Tikka defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Espoon Tikka attack 4.33 + ToBK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

ToBK scores more
14%
level
15%
Espoon Tikka scores more
71%

Espoon Tikka at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Espoon Tikka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: ToBK 2–1 Espoon Tikka

ToBK beat Espoon Tikka 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Porvoon pallokentän tekonurmi in Porvoo.