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Tobermore United vs Portstewart — League #561 2026

Tobermore United
Tobermore United
FT
0 – 1
Portstewart
Portstewart
9/2/2023League #561League #561 · Round 2Fortwilliam Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tobermore United43%
×Draw23%
Portstewart33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tobermore United
1.71
Portstewart
1.48

Tobermore United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

creates per match

Tobermore United
1.85
Portstewart
1.16

allows per match

Tobermore United
1.81
Portstewart
1.56

finishing

Tobermore United+0.00on par
Portstewart+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tobermore United ↓

Portstewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tobermore United or draw
67%
Tobermore United or Portstewart
77%
Draw or Portstewart
57%

Winning margin

Tobermore United wins by 2+
23%
Portstewart wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tobermore United 1+ goals
82%
Tobermore United 2+ goals
51%
Tobermore United 3+ goals
24%
Portstewart 1+ goals
77%
Portstewart 2+ goals
43%
Portstewart 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tobermore United (draw refunded)
56%
Portstewart (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tobermore United at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

Portstewart away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tobermore United attack 1.85 + Portstewart defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.71

Portstewart attack 1.16 + Tobermore United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tobermore United scores more
43%
level
23%
Portstewart scores more
33%

Tobermore United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tobermore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Tobermore United 0–1 Portstewart

Portstewart beat Tobermore United 1-0 in League #561 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Fortwilliam Park in Tobermore.