Tobermore United 3–1 Dollingstown: Result & Stats

Tobermore United

FT

3 – 1

Dollingstown

11/11/2023

League #561 · Round 8Fortwilliam Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tobermore United39%

×Draw23%

Dollingstown39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tobermore UnitedExpected goals in this matchDollingstown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

Tobermore United

1.71

Dollingstown

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 20 away

1.77

creates per match

1.65

1.77

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Tobermore United

1.77

Dollingstown

1.65

allows per match

Tobermore United

1.77

Dollingstown

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tobermore United+0.00on par

Dollingstown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tobermore United ↓

Dollingstown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Tobermore United or draw

61%

Tobermore United or Dollingstown

77%

Draw or Dollingstown

61%

Winning margin

Tobermore United wins by 2+

20%

Dollingstown wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tobermore United 1+ goals

82%

Tobermore United 2+ goals

51%

Tobermore United 3+ goals

24%

Dollingstown 1+ goals

82%

Dollingstown 2+ goals

51%

Dollingstown 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tobermore United (draw refunded)

50%

Dollingstown (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tobermore United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Dollingstown away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tobermore United attack 1.77 + Dollingstown defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dollingstown attack 1.65 + Tobermore United defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tobermore United scores more

39%

level

23%

Dollingstown scores more

39%

Tobermore United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tobermore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff