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TMT vs BST Galaxy — GFA League 2020

TMT
TMT
FT
0 – 2
BST Galaxy
BST Galaxy
11/30/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

TMT32%
×Draw31%
BST Galaxy37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TMT
0.93
BST Galaxy
1.02

BST Galaxy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

TMT
0.84
BST Galaxy
1.04

allows per match

TMT
1.00
BST Galaxy
1.02

finishing

TMT+0.00on par
BST Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TMT ↓

BST Galaxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

TMT or draw
63%
TMT or BST Galaxy
69%
Draw or BST Galaxy
68%

Winning margin

TMT wins by 2+
11%
BST Galaxy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

TMT 1+ goals
61%
TMT 2+ goals
24%
TMT 3+ goals
7%
BST Galaxy 1+ goals
64%
BST Galaxy 2+ goals
27%
BST Galaxy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

TMT (draw refunded)
47%
BST Galaxy (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TMT at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

BST Galaxy away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TMT attack 0.84 + BST Galaxy defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

BST Galaxy attack 1.04 + TMT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

TMT scores more
32%
level
31%
BST Galaxy scores more
37%

BST Galaxy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "BST Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TMT 0 – 2 BST Galaxy

BST Galaxy beat TMT 2-0 in GFA League on November 30, 2024.