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TMT vs Banjul — GFA League 2020

TMT
TMT
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Banjul
Banjul
12/17/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

TMT35%
×Draw33%
Banjul32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TMT
0.94
Banjul
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 73 away

creates per match

TMT
0.84
Banjul
0.75

allows per match

TMT
1.00
Banjul
1.04

finishing

TMT+0.00on par
Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TMT ↓

Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

TMT or draw
68%
TMT or Banjul
67%
Draw or Banjul
65%

Winning margin

TMT wins by 2+
13%
Banjul wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

TMT 1+ goals
61%
TMT 2+ goals
24%
TMT 3+ goals
7%
Banjul 1+ goals
59%
Banjul 2+ goals
22%
Banjul 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TMT (draw refunded)
52%
Banjul (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TMT at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Banjul away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TMT attack 0.84 + Banjul defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Banjul attack 0.75 + TMT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

TMT scores more
35%
level
33%
Banjul scores more
32%

TMT at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "TMT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: TMT 1–2 Banjul

Banjul beat TMT 2-1 in GFA League on December 17, 2023.