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Tlaxcala vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
11/4/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tlaxcala38%
×Draw29%
Tampico Madero33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.17
Tampico Madero
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 63 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
Tampico Madero
0.89

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
Tampico Madero
1.16

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
67%
Tlaxcala or Tampico Madero
71%
Draw or Tampico Madero
62%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
16%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
69%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
33%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
11%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
66%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
29%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
53%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Tampico Madero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tampico Madero attack 0.89 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
38%
level
29%
Tampico Madero scores more
33%

Tlaxcala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tlaxcala vs Tampico Madero

Tampico Madero beat Tlaxcala 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.