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Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
8/18/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tlaxcala40%
×Draw27%
Leones Negros UDG33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.30
Leones Negros UDG
1.16

Tlaxcala creates 12% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 134 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
67%
Tlaxcala or Leones Negros UDG
73%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
60%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
18%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
73%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
37%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
14%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
69%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
32%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
55%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
40%
level
27%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
33%

Tlaxcala at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros UDG

Leones Negros UDG beat Tlaxcala 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.