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Tlaxcala vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Celaya
Celaya
8/31/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tlaxcala35%
×Draw28%
Celaya37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.15
Celaya
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 119 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
Celaya
1.13

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
63%
Tlaxcala or Celaya
72%
Draw or Celaya
65%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
14%
Celaya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
68%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
32%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
11%
Celaya 1+ goals
70%
Celaya 2+ goals
34%
Celaya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
48%
Celaya (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Celaya attack 1.15 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
35%
level
28%
Celaya scores more
37%

Celaya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tlaxcala 1–2 Celaya

Celaya beat Tlaxcala 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 31, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.