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Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
CA La Paz
CA La Paz
7/27/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Tlaxcala50%
×Draw24%
CA La Paz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.73
CA La Paz
1.18

Tlaxcala creates 47% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
CA La Paz
1.09

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
CA La Paz
2.28

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

CA La Paz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
74%
Tlaxcala or CA La Paz
76%
Draw or CA La Paz
50%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
27%
CA La Paz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
82%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
52%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
25%
CA La Paz 1+ goals
69%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
33%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
66%
CA La Paz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.73

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
50%
level
24%
CA La Paz scores more
26%

Tlaxcala at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tlaxcala 0–2 CA La Paz

CA La Paz beat Tlaxcala 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.