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Tlaxcala vs Atlante FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlante FC
Atlante FC
9/8/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tlaxcala33%
×Draw28%
Atlante FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.14
Atlante FC
1.25

Atlante FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 147 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
Atlante FC
1.22

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
Atlante FC
1.10

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
Atlante FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Atlante FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
61%
Tlaxcala or Atlante FC
72%
Draw or Atlante FC
67%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
14%
Atlante FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
68%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
32%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
11%
Atlante FC 1+ goals
71%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
36%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
46%
Atlante FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Atlante FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Atlante FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atlante FC attack 1.22 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
33%
level
28%
Atlante FC scores more
39%

Atlante FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tlaxcala 1–0 Atlante FC

Tlaxcala beat Atlante FC 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.