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Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
9/6/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tlaxcala46%
×Draw26%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.49
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.10

Tlaxcala creates 35% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 124 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.93

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.80

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
72%
Tlaxcala or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
74%
Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
54%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
23%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
77%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
44%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
19%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
67%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
30%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
62%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
46%
level
26%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
28%

Tlaxcala at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tlaxcala 2–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Tlaxcala beat Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.