TJK Legion II 3–1 Soccernet: Result & Stats | Cup

TJK Legion II

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Soccernet

7/27/2023

Cup · Round of 64Wismari staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TJK Legion II92%

×Draw5%

Soccernet3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TJK Legion IIExpected goals in this matchSoccernet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

6.67

1.50

TJK Legion II

6.67

Soccernet

1.50

TJK Legion II creates 345% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

4.50

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

8.83

creates per match

TJK Legion II

4.50

Soccernet

1.00

allows per match

TJK Legion II

2.00

Soccernet

8.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TJK Legion II+0.00on par

Soccernet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over98
Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TJK Legion II ↓

Soccernet →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–00%

1–11%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2–01%

2–12%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 40% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

98%2%3.5

92%8%4.5

82%18%

Double chance

TJK Legion II or draw

97%

TJK Legion II or Soccernet

95%

Draw or Soccernet

Winning margin

TJK Legion II wins by 2+

82%

Soccernet wins by 2+

Team goals

TJK Legion II 1+ goals

100%

TJK Legion II 2+ goals

98%

TJK Legion II 3+ goals

92%

Soccernet 1+ goals

78%

Soccernet 2+ goals

44%

Soccernet 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

TJK Legion II (draw refunded)

97%

Soccernet (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

TJK Legion II at home — creates 4.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Soccernet away — creates 1.00, concedes 8.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

TJK Legion II attack 4.50 + Soccernet defence 8.83 → ÷2 → 6.67

Soccernet attack 1.00 + TJK Legion II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 92%?"

TJK Legion II scores more

92%

level

Soccernet scores more

TJK Legion II at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "TJK Legion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff