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TJK Legion II vs FC Tallinn — Cup 2020

TJK Legion II
TJK Legion II
FT
0 – 4
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
8/26/2020CupCup · 32nd FinalsWismari staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TJK Legion II51%
×Draw18%
FC Tallinn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TJK Legion II
2.85
FC Tallinn
2.20

TJK Legion II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

TJK Legion II
4.50
FC Tallinn
2.40

allows per match

TJK Legion II
2.00
FC Tallinn
1.20

finishing

TJK Legion II+0.00on par
FC Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TJK Legion II ↓

FC Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

TJK Legion II or draw
70%
TJK Legion II or FC Tallinn
82%
Draw or FC Tallinn
49%

Winning margin

TJK Legion II wins by 2+
33%
FC Tallinn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

TJK Legion II 1+ goals
94%
TJK Legion II 2+ goals
77%
TJK Legion II 3+ goals
53%
FC Tallinn 1+ goals
89%
FC Tallinn 2+ goals
64%
FC Tallinn 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

TJK Legion II (draw refunded)
63%
FC Tallinn (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TJK Legion II at home — creates 4.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

FC Tallinn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TJK Legion II attack 4.50 + FC Tallinn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.85

FC Tallinn attack 2.40 + TJK Legion II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TJK Legion II scores more
51%
level
18%
FC Tallinn scores more
30%

TJK Legion II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TJK Legion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: TJK Legion II 0–4 FC Tallinn

FC Tallinn beat TJK Legion II 4-0 in Cup on August 26, 2020.

The match was played at Wismari staadion in Tallinn.