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TJ Přeštice vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

TJ Přeštice
TJ Přeštice
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
11/9/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 14TJ Přeštice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

TJ Přeštice49%
×Draw21%
Jindřichův Hradec29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TJ Přeštice
2.06
Jindřichův Hradec
1.55

TJ Přeštice creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

TJ Přeštice
1.63
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

TJ Přeštice
1.97
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

TJ Přeštice+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TJ Přeštice ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

TJ Přeštice or draw
71%
TJ Přeštice or Jindřichův Hradec
79%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
51%

Winning margin

TJ Přeštice wins by 2+
29%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

TJ Přeštice 1+ goals
87%
TJ Přeštice 2+ goals
61%
TJ Přeštice 3+ goals
34%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
79%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
46%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

TJ Přeštice (draw refunded)
63%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TJ Přeštice at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TJ Přeštice attack 1.63 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + TJ Přeštice defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TJ Přeštice scores more
49%
level
21%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
29%

TJ Přeštice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TJ Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TJ Přeštice 1 – 4 Jindřichův Hradec

Jindřichův Hradec beat TJ Přeštice 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at TJ Přeštice UMT in Přeštice.