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Tivoli vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Tivoli
Tivoli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
12/18/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 16Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli45%
×Draw28%
Sarrabus Ogliastra27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli
1.29
Sarrabus Ogliastra
0.93

Tivoli creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Tivoli
0.88
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Tivoli
0.71
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw
73%
Tivoli or Sarrabus Ogliastra
72%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
55%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+
20%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals
72%
Tivoli 2+ goals
37%
Tivoli 3+ goals
14%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
61%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
24%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)
63%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tivoli scores more
45%
level
28%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
27%

Tivoli at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Tivoli 1–0 Sarrabus Ogliastra

Tivoli beat Sarrabus Ogliastra 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olindo Galli in Tivoli.