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Tivoli vs Pomezia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Tivoli
Tivoli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pomezia
Pomezia
9/28/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 4Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli42%
×Draw31%
Pomezia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli
1.11
Pomezia
0.82

Tivoli creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tivoli
0.88
Pomezia
0.94

allows per match

Tivoli
0.71
Pomezia
1.35

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par
Pomezia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

Pomezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw
73%
Tivoli or Pomezia
69%
Draw or Pomezia
58%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+
17%
Pomezia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals
67%
Tivoli 2+ goals
30%
Tivoli 3+ goals
10%
Pomezia 1+ goals
56%
Pomezia 2+ goals
20%
Pomezia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)
61%
Pomezia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Pomezia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + Pomezia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Pomezia attack 0.94 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tivoli scores more
42%
level
31%
Pomezia scores more
27%

Tivoli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tivoli vs Pomezia

Tivoli and Pomezia drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olindo Galli in Tivoli.