Tivoli 1–0 Nola 1925: Result & Stats

Tivoli

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nola 1925

12/4/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 14Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli43%

×Draw27%

Nola 192530%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TivoliExpected goals in this matchNola 1925

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.07

Tivoli

1.35

Nola 1925

1.07

Tivoli creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

0.88

creates per match

1.44

0.71

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Tivoli

0.88

Nola 1925

1.44

allows per match

Tivoli

0.71

Nola 1925

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par

Nola 1925+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

Nola 1925 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw

70%

Tivoli or Nola 1925

73%

Draw or Nola 1925

57%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+

20%

Nola 1925 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals

74%

Tivoli 2+ goals

39%

Tivoli 3+ goals

15%

Nola 1925 1+ goals

66%

Nola 1925 2+ goals

29%

Nola 1925 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)

59%

Nola 1925 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Nola 1925 away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + Nola 1925 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Nola 1925 attack 1.44 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tivoli scores more

43%

level

27%

Nola 1925 scores more

30%

Tivoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff