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Tivoli vs Cassino — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Tivoli
Tivoli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cassino
Cassino
1/15/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 19Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli42%
×Draw31%
Cassino27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli
1.13
Cassino
0.84

Tivoli creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

creates per match

Tivoli
0.88
Cassino
0.98

allows per match

Tivoli
0.71
Cassino
1.38

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par
Cassino+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

Cassino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw
73%
Tivoli or Cassino
69%
Draw or Cassino
58%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+
18%
Cassino wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals
68%
Tivoli 2+ goals
31%
Tivoli 3+ goals
11%
Cassino 1+ goals
57%
Cassino 2+ goals
21%
Cassino 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)
61%
Cassino (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Cassino away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + Cassino defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cassino attack 0.98 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tivoli scores more
42%
level
31%
Cassino scores more
27%

Tivoli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Tivoli 0–1 Cassino

Cassino beat Tivoli 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olindo Galli in Tivoli.