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Tivoli vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Tivoli
Tivoli
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
10/23/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli48%
×Draw29%
Atletico Uri23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli
1.29
Atletico Uri
0.79

Tivoli creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Tivoli
0.88
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Tivoli
0.71
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw
77%
Tivoli or Atletico Uri
71%
Draw or Atletico Uri
52%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+
22%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals
72%
Tivoli 2+ goals
37%
Tivoli 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
55%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
19%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tivoli scores more
48%
level
29%
Atletico Uri scores more
23%

Tivoli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tivoli vs Atletico Uri

Tivoli and Atletico Uri drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone G on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olindo Galli in Tivoli.