Tivoli Gardens 1–1 Portmore United: Result & Stats

Tivoli Gardens

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portmore United

1/6/2025

Premier League · Round 16Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Tivoli Gardens36%

×Draw28%

Portmore United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tivoli GardensExpected goals in this matchPortmore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.16

Tivoli Gardens

1.17

Portmore United

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 96 away

1.43

creates per match

1.21

1.10

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.43

Portmore United

1.21

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.10

Portmore United

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Portmore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

Portmore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw

64%

Tivoli Gardens or Portmore United

72%

Draw or Portmore United

64%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+

15%

Portmore United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals

69%

Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals

33%

Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals

11%

Portmore United 1+ goals

69%

Portmore United 2+ goals

32%

Portmore United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)

50%

Portmore United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Portmore United away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + Portmore United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.17

Portmore United attack 1.21 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more

36%

level

28%

Portmore United scores more

36%

Tivoli Gardens at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff