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Tivoli Gardens vs Humble Lions — Premier League 2019

Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Humble Lions
Humble Lions
12/29/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Stadium East

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Tivoli Gardens47%
×Draw26%
Humble Lions26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli Gardens
1.47
Humble Lions
1.02

Tivoli Gardens creates 44% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 74 away

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens
1.43
Humble Lions
0.95

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens
1.10
Humble Lions
1.51

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par
Humble Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

Humble Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw
74%
Tivoli Gardens or Humble Lions
74%
Draw or Humble Lions
53%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
24%
Humble Lions wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
77%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
43%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
18%
Humble Lions 1+ goals
64%
Humble Lions 2+ goals
27%
Humble Lions 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
64%
Humble Lions (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Humble Lions away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + Humble Lions defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.47

Humble Lions attack 0.95 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more
47%
level
26%
Humble Lions scores more
26%

Tivoli Gardens at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tivoli Gardens 5–1 Humble Lions

Tivoli Gardens beat Humble Lions 5-1 in Premier League on December 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadium East in Kingston.