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Tivoli Gardens vs Harbour View — Premier League 2019

Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Harbour View
Harbour View
10/12/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Edward Seaga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Tivoli Gardens47%
×Draw26%
Harbour View27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli Gardens
1.48
Harbour View
1.06

Tivoli Gardens creates 40% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 98 away

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens
1.43
Harbour View
1.02

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens
1.10
Harbour View
1.52

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par
Harbour View+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

Harbour View →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw
73%
Tivoli Gardens or Harbour View
74%
Draw or Harbour View
53%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
23%
Harbour View wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
77%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
43%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
19%
Harbour View 1+ goals
65%
Harbour View 2+ goals
29%
Harbour View 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
63%
Harbour View (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Harbour View away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + Harbour View defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Harbour View attack 1.02 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more
47%
level
26%
Harbour View scores more
27%

Tivoli Gardens at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tivoli Gardens vs Harbour View

Tivoli Gardens beat Harbour View 2-1 in Premier League on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Edward Seaga Sports Complex in Kingston.