Tivoli Gardens 0–2 Cavalier: Result & Stats

Tivoli Gardens

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cavalier

10/5/2025

Premier League · Round 7Edward Seaga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Tivoli Gardens34%

×Draw27%

Cavalier39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tivoli GardensExpected goals in this matchCavalier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.27

Tivoli Gardens

1.18

Cavalier

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 106 away

1.43

creates per match

1.43

1.10

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.43

Cavalier

1.43

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.10

Cavalier

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Cavalier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

Cavalier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw

61%

Tivoli Gardens or Cavalier

73%

Draw or Cavalier

66%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+

14%

Cavalier wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals

69%

Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals

33%

Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals

12%

Cavalier 1+ goals

72%

Cavalier 2+ goals

36%

Cavalier 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)

47%

Cavalier (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Cavalier away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + Cavalier defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cavalier attack 1.43 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more

34%

level

27%

Cavalier scores more

39%

Cavalier at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff