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Tivoli Gardens vs Arnett Gardens — Premier League 2019

Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arnett Gardens
Arnett Gardens
3/19/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Edward Seaga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Tivoli Gardens35%
×Draw26%
Arnett Gardens39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli Gardens
1.31
Arnett Gardens
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 103 away

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens
1.43
Arnett Gardens
1.71

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens
1.10
Arnett Gardens
1.19

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par
Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

Arnett Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw
61%
Tivoli Gardens or Arnett Gardens
74%
Draw or Arnett Gardens
65%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
15%
Arnett Gardens wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
73%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
38%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
14%
Arnett Gardens 1+ goals
76%
Arnett Gardens 2+ goals
41%
Arnett Gardens 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
47%
Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Arnett Gardens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arnett Gardens attack 1.71 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more
35%
level
26%
Arnett Gardens scores more
39%

Arnett Gardens at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tivoli Gardens vs Arnett Gardens

Arnett Gardens beat Tivoli Gardens 2-0 in Premier League on March 19, 2026.

The match was played at Edward Seaga Sports Complex in Kingston.