Dubočica 1–1 Radan: Result & Stats

Dubočica

FT

1 – 1

Radan

10/26/2019

Srpska Liga - East · East - 11Gradski stadion pod Hisarom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dubočica51%

×Draw23%

Radan26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DubočicaExpected goals in this matchRadan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.27

Dubočica

1.84

Radan

1.27

Dubočica creates 45% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 27 away

2.21

creates per match

1.56

0.97

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Dubočica

2.21

Radan

1.56

allows per match

Dubočica

0.97

Radan

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par

Radan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Radan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw

74%

Dubočica or Radan

77%

Draw or Radan

49%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+

28%

Radan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals

84%

Dubočica 2+ goals

55%

Dubočica 3+ goals

28%

Radan 1+ goals

72%

Radan 2+ goals

36%

Radan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)

66%

Radan (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

Radan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 2.21 + Radan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.84

Radan attack 1.56 + Dubočica defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dubočica scores more

51%

level

23%

Radan scores more

26%

Dubočica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.