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Titanes FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Titanes FC
Titanes FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
6/21/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 13Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Titanes FC51%
×Draw26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Titanes FC
1.50
Fundación Lara Deportiva
0.92

Titanes FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 77 away

creates per match

Titanes FC
1.69
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Titanes FC
0.83
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Titanes FC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Titanes FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Titanes FC or draw
77%
Titanes FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
74%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
49%

Winning margin

Titanes FC wins by 2+
26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Titanes FC 1+ goals
78%
Titanes FC 2+ goals
44%
Titanes FC 3+ goals
19%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
60%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
23%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Titanes FC (draw refunded)
69%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Titanes FC at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.83 · 89 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Titanes FC attack 1.69 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Titanes FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Titanes FC scores more
51%
level
26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
23%

Titanes FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Titanes FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Titanes FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva

Titanes FC beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 3-0 in Segunda División on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto in Guanare.