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Titanes FC vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

Titanes FC
Titanes FC
FT
4 – 2
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
10/7/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Titanes FC59%
×Draw22%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Titanes FC
1.87
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
0.93

Titanes FC creates 101% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 44 away

creates per match

Titanes FC
1.69
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

Titanes FC
0.83
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

Titanes FC+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Titanes FC ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Titanes FC or draw
82%
Titanes FC or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
78%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
41%

Winning margin

Titanes FC wins by 2+
35%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Titanes FC 1+ goals
85%
Titanes FC 2+ goals
56%
Titanes FC 3+ goals
29%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Titanes FC (draw refunded)
76%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Titanes FC at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.83 · 89 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Titanes FC attack 1.69 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.87

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + Titanes FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Titanes FC scores more
59%
level
22%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
18%

Titanes FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Titanes FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Titanes FC 4–2 Deportivo JBL del Zulia

Titanes FC beat Deportivo JBL del Zulia 4-2 in Segunda División on October 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).