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Titanes FC vs Atlético La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Titanes FC
Titanes FCadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Atlético La Cruz
Atlético La Cruz
11/7/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship - FinalEstadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Titanes FC49%
×Draw26%
Atlético La Cruz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Titanes FC
1.48
Atlético La Cruz
0.96

Titanes FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 50 away

creates per match

Titanes FC
1.69
Atlético La Cruz
1.08

allows per match

Titanes FC
0.83
Atlético La Cruz
1.26

finishing

Titanes FC+0.00on par
Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Titanes FC ↓

Atlético La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Titanes FC or draw
75%
Titanes FC or Atlético La Cruz
74%
Draw or Atlético La Cruz
51%

Winning margin

Titanes FC wins by 2+
25%
Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Titanes FC 1+ goals
77%
Titanes FC 2+ goals
43%
Titanes FC 3+ goals
19%
Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals
62%
Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals
25%
Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Titanes FC (draw refunded)
67%
Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Titanes FC at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.83 · 89 matches

Atlético La Cruz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Titanes FC attack 1.69 + Atlético La Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.08 + Titanes FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Titanes FC scores more
49%
level
26%
Atlético La Cruz scores more
25%

Titanes FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Titanes FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Titanes FC 1–0 Atlético La Cruz

Titanes FC beat Atlético La Cruz 1-0 in Segunda División on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa in Mérida.