Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tiszaújváros vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
FT
0 – 2
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
7/28/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 1Sport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Tiszaújváros42%
×Draw24%
Tiszafuredi VSE35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszaújváros
1.63
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.47

Tiszaújváros creates 11% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 102 away

creates per match

Tiszaújváros
1.62
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Tiszaújváros
1.49
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Tiszaújváros+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszaújváros ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tiszaújváros or draw
65%
Tiszaújváros or Tiszafuredi VSE
76%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
58%

Winning margin

Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
21%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
80%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
48%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
22%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
77%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
43%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
55%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszaújváros at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszaújváros attack 1.62 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tiszaújváros scores more
42%
level
24%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
35%

Tiszaújváros at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tiszaújváros 0–2 Tiszafuredi VSE

Tiszafuredi VSE beat Tiszaújváros 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sport Park in Tiszaújváros.