Tiszaújváros 1–0 Sajóbábony Vegyész: Result & Stats

Tiszaújváros

FT

1 – 0

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3/14/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 24Sport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tiszaújváros68%

×Draw17%

Sajóbábony Vegyész15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiszaújvárosExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.19

Tiszaújváros

2.63

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.19

Tiszaújváros creates 121% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

1.62

creates per match

0.89

1.49

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Tiszaújváros

1.62

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Tiszaújváros

1.49

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszaújváros ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Tiszaújváros or draw

85%

Tiszaújváros or Sajóbábony Vegyész

83%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

32%

Winning margin

Tiszaújváros wins by 2+

46%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tiszaújváros 1+ goals

93%

Tiszaújváros 2+ goals

73%

Tiszaújváros 3+ goals

48%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

70%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

33%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)

81%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszaújváros at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszaújváros attack 1.62 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.63

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tiszaújváros scores more

68%

level

17%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

15%

Tiszaújváros at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff