Tiszaújváros 2–1 Diósgyőr II: Result & Stats

Tiszaújváros

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Diósgyőr II

8/10/2025

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 3Sport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Tiszaújváros44%

×Draw24%

Diósgyőr II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiszaújvárosExpected goals in this matchDiósgyőr II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.40

Tiszaújváros

1.66

Diósgyőr II

1.40

Tiszaújváros creates 19% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

1.62

creates per match

1.30

1.49

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Tiszaújváros

1.62

Diósgyőr II

1.30

allows per match

Tiszaújváros

1.49

Diósgyőr II

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszaújváros ↓

Diósgyőr II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tiszaújváros or draw

68%

Tiszaújváros or Diósgyőr II

76%

Draw or Diósgyőr II

56%

Winning margin

Tiszaújváros wins by 2+

23%

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tiszaújváros 1+ goals

81%

Tiszaújváros 2+ goals

49%

Tiszaújváros 3+ goals

23%

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals

75%

Diósgyőr II 2+ goals

41%

Diósgyőr II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)

57%

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszaújváros at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszaújváros attack 1.62 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tiszaújváros scores more

44%

level

24%

Diósgyőr II scores more

32%

Tiszaújváros at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff