Tiszaújváros 4–2 Cigand SE: Result & Stats

Tiszaújváros

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cigand SE

10/6/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 10Sport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tiszaújváros37%

×Draw24%

Cigand SE39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiszaújvárosExpected goals in this matchCigand SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.54

Tiszaújváros

1.50

Cigand SE

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

1.62

creates per match

1.58

1.49

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tiszaújváros

1.62

Cigand SE

1.58

allows per match

Tiszaújváros

1.49

Cigand SE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Cigand SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszaújváros ↓

Cigand SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tiszaújváros or draw

61%

Tiszaújváros or Cigand SE

76%

Draw or Cigand SE

63%

Winning margin

Tiszaújváros wins by 2+

18%

Cigand SE wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tiszaújváros 1+ goals

78%

Tiszaújváros 2+ goals

44%

Tiszaújváros 3+ goals

19%

Cigand SE 1+ goals

79%

Cigand SE 2+ goals

45%

Cigand SE 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)

49%

Cigand SE (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszaújváros at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

Cigand SE away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszaújváros attack 1.62 + Cigand SE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cigand SE attack 1.58 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tiszaújváros scores more

37%

level

24%

Cigand SE scores more

39%

Cigand SE at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff