Tiszakecske FC 7–1 Sajóbábony Vegyész

Tiszakecske FC

FT

7 – 1

Sajóbábony Vegyész

9/9/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 9Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tiszakecske FC84%

×Draw11%

Sajóbábony Vegyész5%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tiszakecske FCExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

0.71

Tiszakecske FC

3.16

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.71

Tiszakecske FC creates 345% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

2.68

creates per match

0.89

0.53

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Tiszakecske FC

2.68

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Tiszakecske FC

0.53

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszakecske FC ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Tiszakecske FC or draw

95%

Tiszakecske FC or Sajóbábony Vegyész

89%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

16%

Winning margin

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+

66%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals

96%

Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals

82%

Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals

59%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

51%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

16%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)

94%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszakecske FC at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.68 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 3.16

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Tiszakecske FC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Tiszakecske FC scores more

84%

level

11%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

5%

Tiszakecske FC at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff