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Tiszakecske FC vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC
FT
2 – 1
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
11/1/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 16Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tiszakecske FC81%
×Draw12%
Mezőkövesd II6%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszakecske FC
2.92
Mezőkövesd II
0.71

Tiszakecske FC creates 311% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tiszakecske FC
2.68
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Tiszakecske FC
0.53
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszakecske FC ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tiszakecske FC or draw
94%
Tiszakecske FC or Mezőkövesd II
88%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
19%

Winning margin

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+
62%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals
94%
Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals
78%
Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals
55%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
51%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
16%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)
93%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszakecske FC at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.68 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.92

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Tiszakecske FC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Tiszakecske FC scores more
81%
level
12%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
6%

Tiszakecske FC at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tiszakecske FC 2–1 Mezőkövesd II

Tiszakecske FC beat Mezőkövesd II 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Tiszakécske.