Tiszakecske FC 1–1 Csakvar: Result & Stats

Tiszakecske FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Csakvar

A. Torvund 65'

Z. Nagy 90+1'

12/3/2023

League #272 · Round 17Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tiszakecske FC35%

×Draw31%

Csakvar35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tiszakecske FCExpected goals in this matchCsakvar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

Tiszakecske FC

1.00

Csakvar

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Tiszakecske FC

1.22

Csakvar

1.00

allows per match

Tiszakecske FC

1.00

Csakvar

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Csakvar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszakecske FC ↓

Csakvar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tiszakecske FC or draw

65%

Tiszakecske FC or Csakvar

69%

Draw or Csakvar

65%

Winning margin

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+

13%

Csakvar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals

63%

Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals

26%

Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals

8%

Csakvar 1+ goals

63%

Csakvar 2+ goals

26%

Csakvar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)

50%

Csakvar (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszakecske FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Csakvar away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszakecske FC attack 1.22 + Csakvar defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Csakvar attack 1.00 + Tiszakecske FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tiszakecske FC scores more

35%

level

31%

Csakvar scores more

35%

Tiszakecske FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

42'

46'

55'

60'

L. Juhász← D. Szakály

65'

A. Torvund

74'

Z. Nagy← M. Major

76'

Z. Nagy

78'

B. Gyurján← D. Cipf

78'

V. Pongrácz← B. Zamostny

82'

A. Winkler← A. Torvund

90'

Z. Máté← L. Bertus

90+1'

Z. Nagy

Tiszakecske

Csakvar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Torvund

▼

Cipf

Manager: G. Toldi

46'▲Á. Szekér←▼L. Szőr

78'▲B. Gyurján←▼D. Cipf

78'▲V. Pongrácz←▼B. Zamostny

82'▲A. Winkler←▼A. Torvund

90'▲Z. Máté←▼L. Bertus

Tiszakecske FC substitutes

SzekérGyurjánPongráczWinklerMátéKryvotsiukGvishianiBenczeBekkerProkop

Manager: B. Tóth

60'▲L. Juhász←▼D. Szakály

74'▲Z. Nagy←▼M. Major

Csakvar substitutes

JuhászNagyPapucsekNoelZeliziGregor

League #272: Tiszakecske FC 1–1 Csakvar

Tiszakecske FC and Csakvar drew 1-1 in League #272 on December 3, 2023.

Goals: A. Torvund (65'), Z. Nagy (90+1').

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Tiszakécske.

Tiszakecske FC vs Csakvar — League #272 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #272: Tiszakecske FC 1–1 Csakvar