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Tiszafuredi VSE vs Tállya — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
FT
4 – 1
Tállya
Tállya
8/12/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 3Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Tiszafuredi VSE54%
×Draw21%
Tállya25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszafuredi VSE
2.04
Tállya
1.32

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 55% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 47 away

creates per match

Tiszafuredi VSE
1.77
Tállya
1.09

allows per match

Tiszafuredi VSE
1.55
Tállya
2.32

finishing

Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par
Tállya+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszafuredi VSE ↓

Tállya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tiszafuredi VSE or draw
75%
Tiszafuredi VSE or Tállya
79%
Draw or Tállya
46%

Winning margin

Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
32%
Tállya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
87%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
60%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
33%
Tállya 1+ goals
73%
Tállya 2+ goals
38%
Tállya 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
69%
Tállya (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszafuredi VSE at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 102 matches

Tállya away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.32 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.77 + Tállya defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tállya attack 1.09 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
54%
level
21%
Tállya scores more
25%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tiszafuredi VSE vs Tállya

Tiszafuredi VSE beat Tállya 4-1 in NB III - Northeast on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep in Tiszafüred.