Tiszafuredi VSE 0–2 Eger: Result & Stats

Tiszafuredi VSE

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Eger

11/5/2023

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 14Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Tiszafuredi VSE48%

×Draw23%

Eger29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tiszafuredi VSEExpected goals in this matchEger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.39

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.83

Eger

1.39

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 32% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 110 away

1.77

creates per match

1.23

1.55

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.77

Eger

1.23

allows per match

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.55

Eger

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Eger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszafuredi VSE ↓

Eger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tiszafuredi VSE or draw

71%

Tiszafuredi VSE or Eger

77%

Draw or Eger

52%

Winning margin

Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+

26%

Eger wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals

84%

Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals

54%

Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals

28%

Eger 1+ goals

75%

Eger 2+ goals

40%

Eger 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)

62%

Eger (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszafuredi VSE at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 102 matches

Eger away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.89 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.77 + Eger defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Eger attack 1.23 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tiszafuredi VSE scores more

48%

level

23%

Eger scores more

29%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff