Eger 1–2 Tiszafuredi VSE: Result & Stats

Eger

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tiszafuredi VSE

5/19/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 29Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Eger42%

×Draw25%

Tiszafuredi VSE33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EgerExpected goals in this matchTiszafuredi VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.34

Eger

1.55

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.34

Eger creates 16% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 102 away

1.47

creates per match

1.45

1.23

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Eger

1.47

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.45

allows per match

Eger

1.23

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eger+0.00on par

Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eger ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Eger or draw

67%

Eger or Tiszafuredi VSE

75%

Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE

58%

Winning margin

Eger wins by 2+

21%

Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Eger 1+ goals

79%

Eger 2+ goals

46%

Eger 3+ goals

20%

Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals

74%

Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals

39%

Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Eger (draw refunded)

56%

Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eger at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eger attack 1.47 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Eger defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eger scores more

42%

level

25%

Tiszafuredi VSE scores more

33%

Eger at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff