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Tishreen vs Jabala — Premier League 2019

Tishreen
Tishreen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jabala
Jabala
3/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Al Basil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Tishreen54%
×Draw26%
Jabala20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tishreen
1.52
Jabala
0.81

Tishreen creates 88% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

Tishreen
1.56
Jabala
1.04

allows per match

Tishreen
0.59
Jabala
1.47

finishing

Tishreen+0.00on par
Jabala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tishreen ↓

Jabala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tishreen or draw
80%
Tishreen or Jabala
74%
Draw or Jabala
46%

Winning margin

Tishreen wins by 2+
28%
Jabala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tishreen 1+ goals
78%
Tishreen 2+ goals
45%
Tishreen 3+ goals
20%
Jabala 1+ goals
56%
Jabala 2+ goals
19%
Jabala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tishreen (draw refunded)
73%
Jabala (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tishreen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 81 matches

Jabala away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tishreen attack 1.56 + Jabala defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jabala attack 1.04 + Tishreen defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tishreen scores more
54%
level
26%
Jabala scores more
20%

Tishreen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tishreen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tishreen 1–0 Jabala

Tishreen beat Jabala 1-0 in Premier League on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Al Basil Stadium in Latakia.