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Tishreen vs Hilal Al-Quds — AFC Cup 2018

Tishreen
Tishreen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hilal Al-Quds
Hilal Al-Quds
5/18/2022AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tishreen56%
×Draw22%
Hilal Al-Quds21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tishreen
1.88
Hilal Al-Quds
1.07

Tishreen creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tishreen
2.75
Hilal Al-Quds
0.89

allows per match

Tishreen
1.25
Hilal Al-Quds
1.00

finishing

Tishreen+0.00on par
Hilal Al-Quds+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tishreen ↓

Hilal Al-Quds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tishreen or draw
79%
Tishreen or Hilal Al-Quds
78%
Draw or Hilal Al-Quds
44%

Winning margin

Tishreen wins by 2+
32%
Hilal Al-Quds wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tishreen 1+ goals
85%
Tishreen 2+ goals
56%
Tishreen 3+ goals
29%
Hilal Al-Quds 1+ goals
66%
Hilal Al-Quds 2+ goals
29%
Hilal Al-Quds 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tishreen (draw refunded)
72%
Hilal Al-Quds (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tishreen at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Hilal Al-Quds away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tishreen attack 2.75 + Hilal Al-Quds defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Hilal Al-Quds attack 0.89 + Tishreen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tishreen scores more
56%
level
22%
Hilal Al-Quds scores more
21%

Tishreen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tishreen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Tishreen 0–0 Hilal Al-Quds

Tishreen and Hilal Al-Quds drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.