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Tishreen vs Efrin — Premier League 2019

Tishreen
Tishreen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Efrin
Efrin
4/9/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Tishreen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tishreen69%
×Draw19%
Efrin11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tishreen
2.05
Efrin
0.68

Tishreen creates 201% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tishreen
1.56
Efrin
0.77

allows per match

Tishreen
0.59
Efrin
2.54

finishing

Tishreen+0.00on par
Efrin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tishreen ↓

Efrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tishreen or draw
89%
Tishreen or Efrin
81%
Draw or Efrin
31%

Winning margin

Tishreen wins by 2+
44%
Efrin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tishreen 1+ goals
87%
Tishreen 2+ goals
61%
Tishreen 3+ goals
33%
Efrin 1+ goals
49%
Efrin 2+ goals
15%
Efrin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tishreen (draw refunded)
86%
Efrin (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tishreen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 81 matches

Efrin away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tishreen attack 1.56 + Efrin defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.05

Efrin attack 0.77 + Tishreen defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tishreen scores more
69%
level
19%
Efrin scores more
11%

Tishreen at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tishreen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tishreen vs Efrin

Tishreen beat Efrin 3-0 in Premier League on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Tishreen Stadium in Damascus.