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Tishreen vs Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Tishreen
Tishreen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Sahel
Al Sahel
12/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Al Basil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tishreen65%
×Draw22%
Al Sahel12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tishreen
1.76
Al Sahel
0.61

Tishreen creates 189% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tishreen
1.56
Al Sahel
0.63

allows per match

Tishreen
0.59
Al Sahel
1.96

finishing

Tishreen+0.00on par
Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tishreen ↓

Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tishreen or draw
88%
Tishreen or Al Sahel
78%
Draw or Al Sahel
35%

Winning margin

Tishreen wins by 2+
38%
Al Sahel wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tishreen 1+ goals
83%
Tishreen 2+ goals
52%
Tishreen 3+ goals
26%
Al Sahel 1+ goals
46%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
13%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tishreen (draw refunded)
84%
Al Sahel (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tishreen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 81 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tishreen attack 1.56 + Al Sahel defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.76

Al Sahel attack 0.63 + Tishreen defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tishreen scores more
65%
level
22%
Al Sahel scores more
12%

Tishreen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tishreen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tishreen 3–1 Al Sahel

Tishreen beat Al Sahel 3-1 in Premier League on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Al Basil Stadium in Latakia.