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Tishreen vs Al Nejmeh — AFC Cup 2018

Tishreen
Tishreen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
5/24/2022AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tishreen67%
×Draw18%
Al Nejmeh16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tishreen
2.50
Al Nejmeh
1.13

Tishreen creates 121% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tishreen
2.75
Al Nejmeh
1.00

allows per match

Tishreen
1.25
Al Nejmeh
2.25

finishing

Tishreen+0.00on par
Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tishreen ↓

Al Nejmeh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tishreen or draw
84%
Tishreen or Al Nejmeh
82%
Draw or Al Nejmeh
33%

Winning margin

Tishreen wins by 2+
45%
Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tishreen 1+ goals
92%
Tishreen 2+ goals
71%
Tishreen 3+ goals
45%
Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
68%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
31%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tishreen (draw refunded)
81%
Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tishreen at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Al Nejmeh away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tishreen attack 2.75 + Al Nejmeh defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.50

Al Nejmeh attack 1.00 + Tishreen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tishreen scores more
67%
level
18%
Al Nejmeh scores more
16%

Tishreen at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tishreen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tishreen vs Al Nejmeh

Tishreen beat Al Nejmeh 3-1 in AFC Cup on May 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.